April 8, 2026
The US Commodity Futures Trading Commission is embroiled in a fight with state gambling authorities for jurisdiction over prediction markets. Yet some former CFTC officials question whether the agency is up to the task of regulating these venues, which list all manner of unusual contracts, and are growing at a blistering pace.
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Shrinking staff, growing remit
The biggest concerns with prediction markets relate to insider trading and market manipulation.
The third ex-CFTC official says that insider trading investigations alone require a huge amount of resources, and that the CFTC at present “doesn’t have enough people to undertake enforcement that will be needed to police [prediction] markets.”
As of 2025, the CFTC had cut 21.5% of its payrolled staff, with the enforcement division especially hollowed out. The CFTC’s flagship Chicago office was at the heart of regulating participants on CME, the largest US futures exchange. Up until last month, it was considered the CFTC’s most powerful unit, but it has had its team of 20enforcement attorneys reduced to zero.
“The enforcement attorneys in the CFTC Chicago office were the experts on trading and manipulation on the CME. Now, there’s not one attorney,” says Christina McGlosson, the former acting director of the CFTC’s Whistleblower Office. “Does that mean that only the CME will enforce anti-manipulation rules on its exchange, while the CFTC focuses elsewhere?”
Read CFTC wants to regulate prediction markets. Is it up to the task?.